Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems

A performance assessment of gridded snow products in the Upper Euphrates

Snow observations are important in many mountain areas to quantify the water stored in snowpacks and to predicting runoff during the melting period. In this study we compare the performance of five different regional-scale gridded snow products to reproduce snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Upper Euphrates region (Karasu Basin, 10,275 km2), with observations from automatic weather stations in the catchment through Taylor diagrams. The products compared are the ERA5, ERA5-Land, MERRA-2, snow data from a dynamical downscaling of ERA-5 (period 2000-2018) and SWE generated from microwave satellite data (SWE-E(H13) period 2013-2015 product of the EUMETSAT H SAF project). The H13 product presented deficiencies in terms of not being able to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of the snowpack. ERA-5 and, in particular, ERA-Land products, at 30 and 9 km grid size, respectively, showed good performance in reproducing snow evolution compared to four available observation sites. MERRA2 at 50 km resolution showed lower skills compared to the above-mentioned products. Resulting snow data from WRF at 10 km resolution did not show any improvement with respect to the global datasets. The impossibility of testing different configurations due to the lack of observations to compare and the computational constraints to test different parametrizations may be the reasons to explain the low performance although they remain speculative. All the gridded datasets showed good performance in reproducing snow duration over the basin, compared to remotely sensed data. Results highlight ERA-Land dataset as a very promising tool for regional snow studies in mountainous regions with limited observations, in a cost-effective way

Stereotype reputation with limited observability

Assessing trust and reputation is essential in multi-agent systems where agents must decide who to interact with. Assessment typically relies on the direct experience of a trustor with a trustee agent, or on information from witnesses. Where direct or witness information is unavailable, such as when agent turnover is high, stereotypes learned from common traits and behaviour can provide this information. Such traits may be only partially or subjectively observed, with witnesses not observing traits of some trustees or interpreting their observations differently. Existing stereotype-based techniques are unable to account for such partial observability and subjectivity. In this paper we propose a method for extracting information from witness observations that enables stereotypes to be applied in partially and subjectively observable dynamic environments. Specifically, we present a mechanism for learning translations between observations made by trustor and witness agents with subjective interpretations of traits. We show through simulations that such translation is necessary for reliable reputation assessments in dynamic environments with partial and subjective observability

Dimethyl sulfoxide reduces the stability but enhances catalytic activity of the main SARS-CoV-2 protease 3CLpro

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), one of the most challenging global pandemics of the modern era. Potential treatment strategies against COVID-19 are yet to be devised. It is crucial that antivirals that interfere with the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle be identified and developed. 3-Chymotrypsin-like protease (3CLpro) is an attractive antiviral drug target against SARS-CoV-2, and coronaviruses in general, because of its role in the processing of viral polyproteins. Inhibitors of 3CLpro activity are screened in enzyme assays before further development of the most promising leads. Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) is a common additive used in such assays and enhances the solubility of assay components. However, it may also potentially affect the stability and efficiency of 3CLpro but, to date, this effect had not been analyzed in detail. Here, we investigated the effect of DMSO on 3CLpro-catalyzed reaction. While DMSO (5%-20%) decreased the optimum temperature of catalysis and thermodynamic stability of 3CLpro, it only marginally affected the kinetic stability of the enzyme. Increasing the DMSO concentration up to 20% improved the catalytic efficiency and peptide-binding affinity of 3CLpro. At such high DMSO concentration, the solubility and stability of peptide substrate were improved because of reduced aggregation. In conclusion, we recommend 20% DMSO as the minimum concentration to be used in screens of 3CLpro inhibitors as lead compounds for the development of antiviral drugs against COVID-19

Goal directed policy conflict detection and prioritisation: an empirical evaluation

Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.We address the problem of developing effective automated reasoning support for the detection and resolution of conflicts between plans and policies (or norms). How automated reasoning mechanisms can effectively support human decision makers in this process is little understood. In this research, we have conducted experiments with human subjects to assess how effective these reasoning mechanisms are. We found that providing guidance to users regarding what problems to prioritise and highlighting related conflicts led to higher quality outcomes, and problems were successfully solved more rapidly.RCUK Digital Economy Programm

Determination of some pomological features of bilberries (vaccinium myrtillus L.) native to Sarıkamış (kars), Turkey [Türkiye'nin sarıkamış (kars) bölgesinde doğal olarak yetişen çobanüzümlerinin (vaccinium myrtillus l.) bazı meyve özelliklerinin belirlenmesi]

This study was carried out to evaluate some physical and chemical properties of wild bilberry fruits collected from Sarıkamış forest of Kars province in Eastern Anatolia Region of Turkey. For this purpose, berry width, berry length, berry weight, pH, titratable acidity content (TAC), soluble solid content (SSC), taste, aroma, L*, a*, and b* color values were measured based on 4 replications of 20 fruit samples each from 20 plant genotypes. The results were interpreted on average values. Average values for width, length, weight, pH, TAC, SSC, taste, aroma and L*, a*, b* color values of berries were found as: 9.12 mm, 8.02 mm, 5.08 g, 2.22, 2.70%, 7.41%, 2.95, 3.00, 14.88, 1.72 and 0.06, respectively. Range values for the corresponding characteristics were determined as: 7.55 to 10.37 mm, 6.95 to 9.80 mm, 3.00 to 7.00 g, 2.04 to 2.60 %, 2.40 to 3.00 %, 6.00 to 8.50, 2.00 to 4.00, 13.24 to 16.30, 1.004 to 3.04 and -1.98 to 3.87, respectively (There is no aroma interval between these values). The current research is a preliminary evaluation for some physical and chemical characteristics of wild bilberries native to Sarıkamış district. Consequently, more detailed studies should be conducted on further physical and chemical characteristics of bilberries for breeding purposes and to gain baseline knowledge on the flora of Turkey. © 2019, Centenary University. All rights reserved

Linker residues regulate the activity and stability of hexokinase 2, a promising anticancer target

Hexokinase (HK) catalyzes the first step in glucose metabolism, making it an exciting target for the inhibition of tumor initiation and progression due to their elevated glucose metabolism. The upregulation of hexokinase-2 (HK2) in many cancers and its limited expression in normal tissues make it a particularly attractive target for the selective inhibition of cancer growth and the eradication of tumors with limited side effects. The design of such safe and effective anticancer therapeutics requires the development of HK2-specific inhibitors that will not interfere with other HK isozymes. As HK2 is unique among HKs in having a catalytically active N-terminal domain (NTD), we have focused our attention on this region. We previously found that NTD activity is affected by the size of the linker helix-α13 that connects the N- and C-terminal domains of HK2. Three nonactive site residues (D447, S449, and K451) at the beginning of the linker helix-α13 have been found to regulate the NTD activity of HK2. Mutation of these residues led to increased dynamics, as shown via hydrogen deuterium exchange analysis and molecular dynamic simulations. D447A contributed the most to the enhanced dynamics of the NTD, with reduced calorimetric enthalpy of HK2. Similar residues exist in the C-terminal domain (CTD) but are unnecessary for HK1 and HK2 activity. Thus, we postulate these residues serve as a regulatory site for HK2 and may provide new directions for the design of anticancer therapeutics that reduce the rate of glycolysis in cancer through specific inhibition of HK2

TIDY: A trust-based approach to information fusion through diversity

Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.Trust and reputation are significant components in open dynamic systems for making informed and reliable decisions. State-of-the-art information fusion models that exploit these mechanisms generally rely on reports from as many sources as possible. Situations exist, however, where seeking evidence from all possible sources is unrealistic. Querying information sources is costly especially in resource-constrained environments, in terms of time and bandwidth. In addition, reports from multiple sources expose one to the risk of double-counting evidence, introducing an extra challenge of distinguishing fact from rumour. This paper describes TIDY (Trust-based Information fusion through DiversitY), a trust-based approach to information fusion that exploits diversity among information sources in order to select a small number of candidates to query for evidence, and to minimise the effect of correlated evidence and bias. We demonstrate that reliable decisions can be reached using evidence from small groups of individuals. We show empirically that our approach is robust in contexts of variable trust in information sources, and to a degree of deception.Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) ; Overseas Scholarship Scheme (OSS) ; the U.S. Army Research Laboratory ; the U.K. Ministry of Defenc